Agenda Item Wording:
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Discussion on Residential land and housing inventories within Tier I, and Tier II, and discussion of Land Use Policy LU-P-21 analysis regarding movement to and development of Tier III lands.
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Prepared by:
Josh Dan, Senior Planner, (559)713-4003, josh.dan@visalia.city
Paul Bernal, Planning and Community Preservation Director, (559) 713-4025, paul.bernal@visalia.city
Department Recommendation: That the City Council and Planning Commission receive the staff report and presentation providing an overview of the following items:
1. Update on the Residential permit totals and remaining inventory of residential lands within Tier I and Tier II Urban Growth Boundaries.
2. Anticipated date that the Tier III threshold will be met for residential uses.
3. Analysis of Land Use Policy LU-P-21 regarding the potential impacts on moving properties from Tier II to Tier III for the purpose of development outside of current established thresholds.
Summary:
Residential development activity in Visalia - following the nationwide economic downturn of mid-2010 - has remained consistent. This is evident based on the number of residential permits issued (see Attachment “I”, City of Visalia Building Permits Issued 2010 - May 2025 attachment). This has been proven in the permitting records for residential activity, which staff has tracked since the adoption of the 2014 General Plan Update. The 2014 General Plan Update utilizes a simplified methodology for expansion between growth tiers based on issuance of a specified number of units permitted for new dwelling units or new nonresidential floor area. This methodology was ultimately chosen for its simplicity of using one type of criteria that could be easily tracked and reported on a regular basis so that the City could monitor the pace of growth and prepare for the next growth boundary expansion.
General Plan Land Use Policy LU-P-21 is the policy that defines how expansion between growth boundaries shall occur. This policy specifies that building permits are to be counted starting from the date of April 1, 2010. Staff is providing an update of the residential development within both Tier I and Tier II since the expansion into Tier II. This report will provide context on both the number of subdivision maps and multi-family developments approved, and development potential for residential vacant land uses within the balance of both Tier I and Tier II development areas that will contribute to the eventual opening of Tier III for residential development considerations.
Background Discussion:
The City’s adopted growth management plan is implemented and managed through the Growth Boundary Tiers (i.e. Tiers I, II, and III) and has served residents and the development community in offering a smart growth pattern, while preventing sprawl and unnecessary burdens on infrastructure and circulation. On July 19, 2021, the Council adopted Resolution No. 2021-38 memorializing the exact date Tier II residential land use thresholds were reached. At that time, other land use classifications (with the exception of the regional retail land use) had already attained their threshold requirements and the main focus was on the residential land uses. The Tier II Residential land use threshold required 5,850 units to be issued from April 1, 2010, which was achieved on July 1, 2021. Staff is now providing a subsequent update of permits issued, known acreages of undeveloped residential lands remaining within Tiers I and II, subject to current residential development activity, and lastly, the potential estimated time until Policy LU-P-21’s permit threshold of 12,800 units is achieved for expansion into Tier III for residential development.
Single-Family Residential (SFR) Totals - Tiers I and II
Since expanding to Tier II, the city has issued a total of 1,778 single-family permits during that timeframe (July 2021 to August 2025). Current residential development activity in Tiers I and II remain robust.
Achievement of reaching the permit issuance threshold from Tier I to Tier II did not equate to the full buildout of all residential lands in Tier I. In fact, there remains:
• In Tier I, approximately ±260-acres of undeveloped single-family residential land with a development potential for approximately ±1,170 SFR lots (see Table 1-1).
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• Table 1-1: Available Acreage and Development Potential (Tier I) |
|
Land Use |
Acres |
Number of Lots / Units |
|
Single Family Residential |
260-ac |
1,170 lots* |
*The figure provided is an approximation using the development density of 4.5 units/acre at traditional standard street widths.
• In Tier II, approximately ±1,216-acres of undeveloped single-family residential land with a development potential for approximately ±5,472 SFR lots (see Table 1-2).
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• Table 1-2: Available Acreage and Development Potential (Tier II) |
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Land Use |
Acres |
Number of Lots / Units |
|
Single Family Residential |
1,216-ac |
5,472 lots* |
*The figure provided is an approximation using the development density of 4.5 units/acre at traditional standard street widths.
Together, Tier I and Tier II have a development potential of ±6,642 SFR units upon undeveloped lands. In addition to undeveloped sites, there are several entitled residential subdivision projects that have been approved and/or are going through the approval process in each Tier boundary that have yet to be fully developed to completion.
The following is a summary of existing single-family entitlements within Tiers I and II (data has been updated through July 1, 2025):
Approved Tentative and Final Map Lot Totals: Approved Tentative Maps are subdivisions that have received all discretionary approvals but a Final Map has not recorded, whereas Final Maps are where one or more phases or the entire subdivision is recorded and the recorded map contains lots where building permits have not been issued yet.
§ Active Tentative Maps: 22
• Lot Totals: 2,382
§ Recorded Final Maps (phased and/or whole): 45
• Unbuilt lots: 592
Table 1-3 below lists tentative maps for subdivisions in Tier II that are pending approval or have received final approval and are awaiting final map recordation.
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Table 1-3 Tier II Residential Projects |
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Entitlement |
TSM # |
Status |
Location |
Total Units |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carlton Acres |
5590 |
Approved |
Shirk, Riggin, Akers, Kibler |
375 |
|
Pratt Family Ranch |
5583 |
Approved |
Pratt, Mooney, Riverway |
247 |
|
Shepherds Ranch I (10 acres) Shepherds Ranch II (40 acres) |
5581 5589 |
Approved |
Shirk, Clancy, Pershing |
241 |
|
Higgins Ranch |
5585 |
Approved |
Lovers & Cherry |
174 |
|
Crandell / Belissa |
5587 |
Approved |
Demaree & Riverway |
309 |
|
Barr & Wood |
5588 |
Approved |
Whitendale & Roeben |
136 |
|
Pearl Woods |
5591 |
Approved |
McAuliff & Cherry |
274 |
|
Elliot |
5597 |
Approved |
Tulare & Shirk |
224 |
|
Cameron Ranch |
5598 |
Approved |
Ben Maddox & Caldwell |
178 |
|
Ritchie Ranch |
5600 |
Pending approval |
Riverway & Demaree |
320 |
|
Pratt Family Ranch (T3) |
5605 |
Pending approval |
NW Mooney & Pratt |
293 |
|
Blankenship |
5602 |
Approved; pending annexation |
Santa Fe & Caldwell |
203 |
|
Total Units: 2,974 |
Multi-Family Residential (MFR) Totals - Tiers I and II
Similar to the analysis for single-family residential above, the city has issued permits for a total of 1,745 multi-family units since Tier II was opened in July 2021. Since the April 1, 2010, baseline date in Policy LU-P-21, there have been permits for 1,745 multi-family units issued. In addition to multi-family projects approved, there are still approximately 230 acres of undeveloped multi-family residential land in Tier I with an approximate development potential, based on density minimums and maximums, anywhere between 2,745 units and 5,230 units, respectively (see Table 2-1 below for breakdown of land uses acreages and density ranges for medium and high density land uses).
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Table 2-1: Available Acreage and Development Potential (Tier I) |
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Land Use |
Acres |
Number of Units |
|
Multi-Family Residential |
|
Minimum Density (MDR:10 & HDR:15) |
Maximum Density (MDR:15 & HDR:35) |
|
|
Medium Density Residential (R-M-2 Zoning) |
141-ac |
1,410 units** |
2,115 units*** |
|
|
High Density Residential (R-M-3 Zoning) |
89-ac |
1,335 units** |
3,115 units*** |
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TOTAL- |
230-ac |
2,745 Units |
5,230 Units |
**Unit totals are a reflection of the density range for residential medium density land use (10 to 15 units per acre).
***Unit totals are a reflection of the density range for residential high density land use (15 & 35 units per acre).
In Tier II, there is also approximately 285-acres of undeveloped multi-family residential land. The approximate development potential, based on density minimums and maximums, is anywhere between 2,850 units and 5,230 units, respectively (see Table 2-2 below for breakdown of land uses acreages and density ranges for medium and high density land uses).
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Table 2-2: Available Acreage and Development Potential (Tier II) |
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Land Use |
Acres |
Number of Units |
|
Multi-Family Residential |
|
Minimum Density (MDR:10 & HDR:15) |
Maximum Density (MDR:15 & HDR:35) |
|
|
Medium Density Residential (R-M-2 Zoning) |
193-ac |
1,930 units** |
2,895 units*** |
|
|
High Density Residential (R-M-3 Zoning) |
92-ac |
920 units** |
3,220 units** |
|
TOTAL- |
285-ac |
2,850 Units |
5,230 Units |
**Unit totals are a reflection of the density range for residential medium density land use (10 to 15 units per acre).
***Unit totals are a reflection of the density range for residential high density land use (15 & 35 units per acre).
Together, Tier I and Tier II have a development potential of 5,595 minimum density MFR units and 10,460 maximum density MFR units upon undeveloped lands. Again, several entitled residential projects exist in each Tier Boundary and have yet to be fully developed to completion.
The following tables below (Tables 2-3 and 2-4) are a list of entitled multi-family projects in Tiers I and II with permits submitted and under construction or yet to be constructed:
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Table 2-3: Multi-Family Residential Projects Under Construction |
|
Short Name |
LOCATION |
Total # Dwelling Units in Project |
CUP NO. |
Linked Tentative Subdivision Map No. |
Planning Commission Approval Date |
Year(s) Permits Issued |
Year(s) Permits Finaled |
|
1. |
Emerald Creek |
South side of Noble Avenue, approximately 1/3 mile east of McAuliff Street |
18 |
2004-41 |
5453 - Emerald Creek |
08/23/2004 |
2025 (7 units) |
|
|
2. |
East Haven |
Southwest corner of Tulare Avenue and Pinkham Street. |
14 |
2016-13 |
TPM 2016-05 |
07/25/2016 |
2021, 2022, 2025 (all units) |
|
|
3. |
Santa Fe Duplexes |
1402-1416 S Santa Fe St |
12 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2024 (all units) |
|
|
4. |
Demaree / Houston Apartments |
Southwest corner of Demaree and Houston |
243 |
2022-21 |
N/A |
01/09/2023 |
2024 (all units) |
|
|
5. |
Rancho Colegio |
Court & Glendale, SE Corner |
80 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2024 (all units) |
|
|
6. |
Village at Shannon Pkwy. Apartments |
Northeast corner of Court Street and Shannon Pkwy. |
216 |
2020-02 |
N/A |
10/26/2020 |
2022 / 2023 (all units) |
|
|
7. |
Reserve at Ritchie Ranch |
Southeast and northeast corners of Sedona Avenue and Akers Street |
219 |
2020-21 |
N/A |
12/14/2020 |
2022 (all units) |
2025 (80 units) |
|
8. |
1834 E. Houston Ave. |
1834 E. Houston Ave. |
22 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2019 / 2021 (all units) |
|
|
Total Units: 824 |
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Table 2-4: Multi-Family Residential Projects Yet to be Built |
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Short Name |
LOCATION |
Number of Dwelling Units |
CUP NO. |
Linked Tentative Map |
Planning Commission Approval Date |
Status |
|
1. |
N. West Street Triplex |
405 N. West Street Triplex |
3 |
2024-46 |
N/A |
05/27/2025 |
Entitled; awaiting permit submittal |
|
2. |
Stonebrook / Cameron Apartments |
NW Stonebrook & Cameron |
276 |
2024-02 |
N/A |
03/25/2024 |
Entitled; awaiting permit submittal |
|
3. |
Oak Place Multi-Family Community |
SE Linwood & Coburn |
168 |
2023-22 |
5587 - Belissa |
11/13/2023 |
Entitled; awaiting permit submittal |
|
4. |
Caldwell / Lovers Apartments |
NW Lovers Lane & Caldwell |
342 |
2022-25 |
N/A |
01/23/2023 |
Entitled; awaiting permit submittal |
|
5. |
K / Ben Maddox Apartments |
SW Ben Maddox & K. |
292 |
2022-23 |
N/A |
01/09/2023 |
Entitled; awaiting permit submittal |
|
6. |
Orchard Walk Townhomes |
NE Court & Riggin |
234 |
2022-09 |
N/A |
06/27/2022 |
Entitled. Permits in 2022, none issued to date. |
|
7. |
Lovers-Tulare Apartments |
NE Lovers Lane & Tulare |
32 |
2020-10 |
N/A |
07/27/2020 |
Entitled. No permits issued to date. |
|
8. |
Bungalow 144 Apts. (Quail River) |
SE Walnut & Lovers Lane |
146 |
2005-32 |
5495 - Quail River |
10/24/2005 (10/10/2022) |
Entitled. Permits in 2022, none issued to date. |
|
Total Units: 1,493 |
Potential Timeframe for Tier III Residential Threshold
Residential Tier III Development Boundary may only be achieved when 12,800 overall residential units are issued between Tiers I and II (LU-P-21) starting from April 1, 2010. The City has issued 8,806 permits for residential units through July 2025, with 2,938 of those residential permits issued between July 2021 and July 2025, a result of Tier II lands being now eligible for residential development. As a result of residential permit issuance between these two tiers, there are still 3,994 permits that must be issued before the Tier III threshold is satisfied. Since 2010, the city has averaged issuance of 550 units (single-family and multi-family combined) per year. Based on this average, the city is on track to achieve the threshold metric of 12,800 units issued in approximately 7.14 years, which would be sometime in 2032.
However, based on the uptick in approved lots from the projects described in the staff report above, there is the potential that the Tier III permit issuance threshold could be achieved much sooner. This potential is based upon the number of projects that have yet to begin construction and based on other undeveloped lands in both Tiers I and II (i.e. 260 + 1,216 acres) that may come forward with new residential projects, which will continue to add to the future residential permit threshold totals. When considering those opportunities along with the approved and under construction projects (i.e., 2,974 SFR units + 2,317 MFR units), the potential residential permits in the Tier I and II areas far exceed the 3,994 units needing to be issued, as required by LU-P-21, to achieve the Tier III threshold of 12,800 units issued.
Review of Land Use Policy LU-P-21
This General Plan Land Use Element policy has served Visalia well because it encourages the orderly development of land in order to manage extension of services and maintain current levels of service for existing development (see Exhibit “C”, for full text). Visalia’s historically effective concentric growth pattern remains staff’s preferred methodology to limit sprawl which burdens infrastructure and emergency services like police and fire.
Staff has recently been presented with inquiries from developers regarding development submittals in the Tier III boundary hoping to utilize the italicized segment of LU-P-21 to circumvent waiting for the Tier III threshold to meet its permit issuance metric. Predominately this portion of the phrasing states:
“To complement residential neighborhood development, the City also may allow small annexations for sites less than 30 acres in size that are contiguous to the City limits to allow for efficient development of a neighborhood, commercial area or employment center, provided no General Plan amendment is required and infrastructure is available or can be extended at no cost to the City.
Triggers for proceeding from Tier I and Tier II to Tier III may be modified based on subsequent direction from the City Council.”
Staff has responded to these development submittals that are seeking to capitalize on the “italicized” text above, which has resulted in submitting development proposals through the City’s Site Plan Review (SPR) and/or the County’s Project Review Committee (PRC) processes (see Exhibits “E” and “F”). The recent residential subdivision submittal to the County’s PRC process detailed the development of a 127-lot subdivision located at the southwest corner of West Visalia Parkway and the future South County Center Street alignment (Tier III land). The submittal proposed to be entitled and permitted through the County and would not meet the City’s land use policy as noted above including Midvalley Avenue not built to through-street dimension, site circulation, compliant curb returns, superblock connectivity to existing neighborhoods, too many local road connections to South County Center Street which is identified in the Circulation Element as a Collector roadway, and lack of required signalization of the Visalia Parkway and County Center intersection, among many other things outlined in staff’s letter of opposition to the County’s PRC request (see exhibit “F”).
Staff’s interpretation, based on the italicized portions of policy, was intended for alternative consideration where this type of development request could be considered where it can be clearly demonstrated that the small development would complete out and interconnect an existing neighborhood or commercial area thereby allowing for efficient development throughout the area. The City’s position has long been to “hold-the-line” and follow Policy LU-P-21’s explicit threshold metrics subject to available land inventory. As shown earlier in the report above, there is ample land inventory in Tiers I and II to meet and exceed the Tier III threshold metric.
Furthermore, by continuing to use the adopted growth management plan established in the General Plan, exemplified by the use of Visalia Parkway as the southern delineation for the Tier I and II Growth Boundaries, the City fulfills the following General Plan Land Use Policies:
LU-P-19: Ensure that growth occurs in a compact and concentric fashion by implementing the General Plan’s phased growth strategy.
LU-P-28: Continue to use natural and man-made edges, such as major roadways and waterways within the City’s Urban Growth Boundary, as urban development limit and growth phasing lines.
LU-P-42: Develop scenic corridor and gateway guidelines that will maintain the agricultural character of Visalia at its urban fringe.
Staff supports continued efforts to proceed with the established boundaries, and proven growth management policies of the General Plan. The adopted growth management plan is perfected through the Growth Boundary Tiers and has served the residents and development community in offering a smart growth pattern, while preventing sprawl and unnecessary burdens on infrastructure and circulation.
Staff’s recommendation is that LU-P-21 policy continued to be applied as adopted and that development south of Visalia Parkway is premature due to both the existing approved projects that have either started construction and/or not started construction and the undeveloped land inventory still available for development opportunities to support continued development in a logical manner in both Tiers I and II.
Fiscal Impact: N/A
Prior Council Action: N/A
Alternatives: N/A
Recommended Motion (and Alternative Motions if expected):
recommendation
That the City Council and Planning Commission receive the staff report and presentation providing an overview and support staff’s interpretation of LU-P-21.
Environmental Assessment Status: No environmental assessment required at this time. The adoption of any ordinance changes will require environmental documentation pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to be completed by City staff.
CEQA Review: N/A
Deadline for Action: 8/19/2025
Attachments:
Exhibit “A” - Tier I & II - Current Projects Going Through Entitlement
Exhibit “B” - Multi-Family - Current and To Be Built
Exhibit “C” - General Plan Land Use Policy LU-P-21 (full text)
Exhibit “D” - City of Visalia Building Permits Issued 2010 - July 2025
Exhibit “E” - Tulare County PRC submittal 2025-028
Exhibit “F” - COV Planning Division Response to PRC submittal 2025-028